The Trump administration’s move to brand most of Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea a violation of international law doesn’t mean much on its own: China has repeatedly refused to acknowledge the 2016 tribunal ruling that the US finally just endorsed. But analysts say they fear it could lead to a miscalculation at sea if it prompts the Communist Party to more aggressively assert its claims, both to rebuff the US and to deter other claimants in Southeast Asia from taking action. China’s campaign to build and later militarize artificial structures intensified after the Obama administration announced a “pivot” to Asia in 2011. “This may not necessarily change the texture of what the US military is already doing in the South China Sea,” said Collin Koh Swee Lean, research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. “The concern we have is the Chinese may decide to step up their challenge against these US activities in the SCS, thus increasing the risk of incidents.”

U.S. shift in South China Sea raises risk of clash on water. (2020, July 16). Business Mirror, p. A7.